?
arrow_backBack to match
BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Ari · 25 games
52%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 22 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 22 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 19 games
74%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 19 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 19 games
53%
Doom
Doomsignature
Wisper · 18 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 18 games
67%

Nigma Galaxy

Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 17 games
76%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 14 games
86%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 12 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Miracle- · 10 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
SumaiL · 10 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
GH · 9 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptor
KuroKy · 9 games
44%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
357 picks · 344 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
354 picks · 406 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 508 bans
49%
Sven
Sven
294 picks · 305 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
293 picks · 262 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
279 picks · 387 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
276 picks · 458 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total59% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:37
OG 56%Nigma Galaxy 44%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 36:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razor23savage
49% · 155 games44% · 122 games
LunaMiracle-
Luna
Sand King
Sand KingNine
51% · 41 game50% · 83 games
SniperSumaiL
Sniper
Enigma
EnigmaWisper
60% · 96 games48% · 152 games
KunkkaNo!ob
Kunkka
Naga Siren
Naga SirenAri
53% · 124 games50% · 117 games
Dark WillowOmaR
Dark Willow
Windranger
WindrangerCeb
53% · 189 games43% · 131 game
TuskGH
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct24:4
OG 56%Nigma Galaxy 44%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 21:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Luna23savage
49% · 232 games57% · 92 games
MiranaMiracle-
Mirana
Timbersaw
TimbersawWisper
46% · 181 game53% · 160 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Invoker
InvokerNine
52% · 104 games51% · 147 games
MarsNo!ob
Mars
Chen
ChenCeb
56% · 97 games46% · 111 games
Dark WillowOmaR
Dark Willow
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAri
55% · 26 games39% · 130 games
TuskGH
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed23:33
OG 54%Nigma Galaxy 46%
The model gave 54% on OG — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 40:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight23savage
49% · 319 games45% · 213 games
LunaMiracle-
Luna
Enigma
EnigmaWisper
53% · 134 games50% · 230 games
MarsNo!ob
Mars
Rubick
RubickNine
42% · 297 games52% · 149 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Naga Siren
Naga SirenAri
55% · 135 games50% · 223 games
ClockwerkGH
Clockwerk
Tusk
TuskCeb
51% · 157 games52% · 227 games
Shadow DemonOmaR
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 59%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3