DreamLeague Season 24. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
DMSwin 1:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Pparniloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DMS
Batridersignature
aik · 8 games
Jakiro
aik · 8 games
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 7 games
Windrangeroften banned
prblms · 7 games
Skywrath Mage
prblms · 6 games
Ursaoften banned
Shigetsu · 6 games
Visageoften banned
Daxak · 5 games
Dazzleoften banned
Daxak · 4 games
parni
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
357 picks · 344 bans
Hoodwink
354 picks · 406 bans
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
Pangolier
324 picks · 508 bans
Sven
294 picks · 305 bans
Snapfire
293 picks · 262 bans
Windranger
279 picks · 387 bans
Dragon Knight
276 picks · 458 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% DMS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
DMS 78%parni 22%
The model gave 78% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS.
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 78%
Series resultDMS 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1