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European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ilbirs eSportswin 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spirit Academyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ilbirs eSports

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 7 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 7 games
29%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
niche · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 6 games
33%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 6 games
17%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
Norma · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
xsvampire · 5 games
60%
Warlock
Warlock
Undyne_ · 5 games
40%

Team Spirit Academy

Jakiro
Jakiro
kyford · 18 games
22%
Lion
Lion
Aidar · 15 games
47%
Dazzle
Dazzle
kyford · 14 games
36%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 13 games
23%
Warlock
Warlock
kyford · 13 games
31%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
SunshineRR · 11 games
18%
Techies
Techies
Aidar · 10 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SunshineRR · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
611 picks · 381 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
503 picks · 278 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
498 picks · 586 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
475 picks · 396 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
415 picks · 576 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
355 picks · 951 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
340 picks · 285 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
339 picks · 885 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 23%
Hero pool strength54% Ilbirs eSports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total73% Ilbirs eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Ilbirs eSports 73%Team Spirit Academy 27%
The model gave 73% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports.
Game 2prediction missed
Ilbirs eSports 73%Team Spirit Academy 27%
The model gave 73% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy.
Game 3prediction correct
Ilbirs eSports 73%Team Spirit Academy 27%
The model gave 73% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports.
Model check result
Model favoriteIlbirs eSports · 73%
Series resultIlbirs eSports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3