DreamLeague Season 24. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
One Movewin 1:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 1:0
IITeamStormIloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 15 games
Gyrocoptersignature
WoE · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 15 games
Jakiro
Rein · 12 games
Windrangeroften banned
WoE · 12 games
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 11 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 10 games
Doomsignature
SSS · 10 games
ITeamStormI
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
357 picks · 345 bans
Hoodwink
355 picks · 406 bans
Jakiro
347 picks · 258 bans
Pangolier
324 picks · 507 bans
Sven
294 picks · 305 bans
Snapfire
292 picks · 262 bans
Windranger
279 picks · 385 bans
Dragon Knight
276 picks · 458 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% ITeamStormI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
One Move 77%ITeamStormI 23%
The model gave 77% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 77%
Series resultOne Move 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1