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BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Bruv123loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Ponyo · 16 games
56%
Razor
Razoroften banned
CHYuan · 14 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 13 games
31%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
CHYuan · 12 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ws · 11 games
55%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Jhocam · 10 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Ponyo · 9 games
56%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
CHYuan · 9 games
44%

Bruv123

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Bob · 6 games
83%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 5 games
80%
Doom
Doomoften banned
seimei · 4 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 4 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Se · 3 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
seimei · 3 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
seimei · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
358 picks · 405 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
357 picks · 347 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
347 picks · 258 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 510 bans
49%
Sven
Sven
294 picks · 305 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
291 picks · 259 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
279 picks · 382 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
274 picks · 461 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 73%
Hero pool strength58% Bruv123
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:26
Talon Esports 60%Bruv123 40%
The model gave 60% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Bruv123 in 32:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMikoto
44% · 159 games59% · 157 games
Nature's ProphetBob
Nature's Prophet
Windranger
WindrangerAkashi
53% · 123 games47% · 220 games
Razor423
Razor
Kunkka
KunkkaWs
51% · 110 games60% · 65 games
Underlordseimei
Underlord
Mirana
MiranaJhocam
41% · 80 games57% · 137 games
Naga SirenSe
Naga Siren
Tusk
TuskKuku
34% · 107 games
Game 2prediction correct20:11
Talon Esports 57%Bruv123 43%
The model gave 57% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 23:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAkashi
57% · 28 games60% · 104 games
Alchemist423
Alchemist
Pangolier
PangolierMikoto
48% · 208 games44% · 121 game
Nature's ProphetBob
Nature's Prophet
Kunkka
KunkkaWs
43% · 134 games47% · 192 games
Doomseimei
Doom
Sniper
SniperJhocam
49% · 69 games56% · 97 games
ChenSe
Chen
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorKuku
51% · 75 games
Game 3prediction correct23:14
Talon Esports 57%Bruv123 43%
The model gave 57% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 28:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAkashi
56% · 36 games50% · 72 games
Nature's Prophet423
Nature's Prophet
Sniper
SniperMikoto
53% · 54 games46% · 130 games
Beastmasterseimei
Beastmaster
Sand King
Sand KingWs
50% · 58 games49% · 156 games
PuckBob
Puck
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKuku
52% · 107 games45% · 65 games
ChenSe
Chen
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJhocam
53% · 168 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 69%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3