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BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 19 games
74%
Disruptor
Disruptor
KuroKy · 13 games
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 12 games
83%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 12 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
SumaiL · 11 games
45%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
SumaiL · 10 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Miracle- · 10 games
60%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Miracle- · 10 games
40%

AVULUS

Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 12 games
75%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Smiling Knight · 12 games
75%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 11 games
82%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ekki · 9 games
89%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 8 games
75%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 7 games
71%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
SoNNeikO · 7 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
SoNNeikO · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
357 picks · 405 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
357 picks · 347 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
347 picks · 258 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
320 picks · 509 bans
49%
Sven
Sven
294 picks · 305 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
290 picks · 259 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
277 picks · 380 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
273 picks · 460 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 70%
Hero pool strength58% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:16
Nigma Galaxy 46%AVULUS 54%
The model gave 54% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 41:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMiracle-
45% · 63 games47% · 52 games
BristlebackSmiling Knight
Bristleback
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
50% · 254 games48% · 70 games
Queen of PainStormstormer
Queen of Pain
Invoker
InvokerSumaiL
51% · 67 games54% · 99 games
Sand KingXibbe
Sand King
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGH
52% · 152 games51% · 203 games
EnchantressSoNNeikO
Enchantress
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOmaR
53% · 135 games47% · 247 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed49:19
Nigma Galaxy 47%AVULUS 53%
The model gave 53% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 48:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerMiracle-
50% · 145 games49% · 210 games
MorphlingSmiling Knight
Morphling
Kunkka
KunkkaNo!ob
50% · 181 game56% · 92 games
InvokerStormstormer
Invoker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSumaiL
41% · 55 games48% · 134 games
BeastmasterXibbe
Beastmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireOmaR
45% · 147 games57% · 148 games
MiranaEkki
Mirana
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGH
52% · 161 game50% · 105 games
Naga SirenSoNNeikO
Naga Siren
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 54%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2