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BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
ChatoMetracaloss 0:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Apex Genesiswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ChatoMetraca

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Kiri · 1 game
0%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
hFn · 1 game
0%
Marci
Marcioften banned
StingeR · 1 game
0%
Mirana
Mirana
hFn · 1 game
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kiri · 1 game
0%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
StingeR · 1 game
0%

Apex Genesis

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 11 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Speeed · 9 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 9 games
56%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Sammyboy · 7 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
YamSun · 7 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
W1sh- · 7 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
W1sh- · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
W1sh- · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
359 picks · 349 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
357 picks · 406 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
347 picks · 258 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 508 bans
48%
Sven
Sven
295 picks · 305 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
289 picks · 258 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
276 picks · 377 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
271 picks · 462 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:30
ChatoMetraca 43%Apex Genesis 57%
The model gave 57% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 41:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphethFn
53% · 126 games47% · 120 games
MorphlingYamSun
Morphling
Chen
ChenStingeR
62% · 90 games47% · 51 game
Monkey KingW1sh-
Monkey King
Phoenix
PhoenixKiri
49% · 255 games57% · 20 games
VisageFayde
Visage
43% · 152 games
EnchantressSpeeed
Enchantress
41% · 128 games
TuskBignum
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct7:30
ChatoMetraca 43%Apex Genesis 57%
The model gave 57% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 28:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphethFn
50% · 134 games53% · 77 games
MorphlingYamSun
Morphling
Omniknight
OmniknightStingeR
60% · 47 games42% · 82 games
PuckW1sh-
Puck
Dark Willow
Dark WillowKiri
48% · 200 games52% · 90 games
Primal BeastFayde
Primal Beast
52% · 33 games
SniperBignum
Sniper
43% · 99 games
TuskSpeeed
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 65%
Series resultApex Genesis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2