BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CChatoMetracaloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 15 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yopaj · 12 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Skem · 11 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Pakazs · 10 games
Brewmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
Yopaj · 9 games
Jakiro
Skem · 8 games
ChatoMetraca
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
359 picks · 349 bans
Hoodwink
356 picks · 406 bans
Jakiro
347 picks · 258 bans
Pangolier
319 picks · 508 bans
Sven
295 picks · 305 bans
Snapfire
287 picks · 257 bans
Windranger
275 picks · 376 bans
Dragon Knight
270 picks · 461 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% ChatoMetraca
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:10
Shopify Rebellion 66%ChatoMetraca 34%
The model gave 66% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 25:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerTimado
LunahFn
Dragon KnightYopaj
HoodwinkKiri
Broodmothermangekyou
TuskStingeR
BatriderHellscream
Crystal MaidenSkem
Game 2prediction correct22:7
Shopify Rebellion 67%ChatoMetraca 33%
The model gave 67% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 21:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmastermangekyou
MiranahFn
MorphlingTimado
PhoenixKiri
PangolierYopaj
MarciStingeR
SnapfireHellscream
TuskSkem
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 83%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2