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BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Looking for Orgwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Apex Genesisloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Looking for Org

Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 4 games
25%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Yadomi · 3 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Parker · 3 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Matthew · 3 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 2 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Sacred · 2 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Parker · 2 games
100%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Sacred · 2 games
0%

Apex Genesis

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 11 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 9 games
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Speeed · 8 games
75%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Sammyboy · 7 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
YamSun · 7 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
W1sh- · 7 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
W1sh- · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
W1sh- · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
359 picks · 349 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
356 picks · 406 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
347 picks · 258 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
319 picks · 508 bans
48%
Sven
Sven
295 picks · 305 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
287 picks · 257 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
275 picks · 376 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
270 picks · 461 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 71%
Hero pool strength53% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Looking for Org
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:19
Looking for Org 56%Apex Genesis 44%
The model gave 56% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 38:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMnz
52% · 150 games43% · 238 games
MorphlingYamSun
Morphling
Mars
MarsDarkMago
51% · 157 games51% · 95 games
InvokerW1sh-
Invoker
Kunkka
KunkkaSacred
52% · 154 games58% · 45 games
Sand KingFayde
Sand King
Mirana
MiranaMatthew
55% · 103 games42% · 163 games
ClockwerkSpeeed
Clockwerk
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorYadomi
52% · 109 games49% · 132 games
Dark WillowBignum
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct31:17
Looking for Org 55%Apex Genesis 45%
The model gave 55% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 28:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMnz
50% · 211 games56% · 299 games
GyrocopterSpeeed
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinyDarkMago
52% · 284 games57% · 62 games
SniperW1sh-
Sniper
Pangolier
PangolierSacred
48% · 298 games46% · 247 games
KunkkaFayde
Kunkka
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorYadomi
49% · 119 games48% · 149 games
SnapfireBignum
Snapfire
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMatthew
39% · 36 games51% · 191 game
TuskYamSun
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteLooking for Org · 61%
Series resultLooking for Org 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2