BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticoswin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Essenceloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 5 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Ksh · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Team Essence
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
db- · 1 game
Dark Willow
dalul · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
db- · 1 game
Jakiro
Varizh · 1 game
Sniperoften banned
dalul · 1 game
Zeusoften banned
Varizh · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
361 picks · 349 bans
Hoodwink
356 picks · 407 bans
Jakiro
343 picks · 258 bans
Pangolier
320 picks · 513 bans
Sven
295 picks · 306 bans
Snapfire
282 picks · 254 bans
Windranger
277 picks · 364 bans
Dragon Knight
267 picks · 458 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Yangon Galacticos
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total66% Yangon Galacticos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:16
Yangon Galacticos 57%Team Essence 43%
The model gave 57% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 44:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetKsh
Underlorddb-
PuckYoung PH
Winter Wyverndalul
53% · 20 games
JakiroVarizh
Game 2prediction correct28:7
Yangon Galacticos 59%Team Essence 41%
The model gave 59% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 26:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone DruidKsh
Dragon Knightdb-
KunkkaYoung PH
Clockwerkdalul
63% · 47 games
MiranaVarizh
Model check result
Model favoriteYangon Galacticos · 66%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2