AVULUS vs Just Team — prediction BDB2ЗК · Dota 2

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BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

AVULUSwin 2:0

series probability

93%7%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Just Teamloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Pucksignature

ряф^^ · 12 games

75%

Batridersignature

Ekki · 11 games

82%

Windrangersignature

Smiling Knight · 11 games

73%

Bristlebacksignature

Smiling Knight · 8 games

75%

Tusksignature

Ekki · 8 games

88%

Enigmasignature

Xibbe · 7 games

71%

Naga Sirensignature

SoNNeikO · 7 games

100%

Nature's Prophetoften banned

SoNNeikO · 7 games

57%

Just Team

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

361 picks · 349 bans

51%

Hoodwink

355 picks · 407 bans

53%

Jakiro

343 picks · 257 bans

47%

Pangolier

319 picks · 511 bans

48%

Sven

295 picks · 306 bans

51%

Snapfire

282 picks · 254 bans

52%

Windranger

275 picks · 363 bans

52%

Dragon Knight

265 picks · 457 bans

46%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)69% vs 50%

Hero pool strength63% AVULUS

Head-to-head1 – 0

Model total93% AVULUS

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct26:4

AVULUS 80%Just Team 20%

The model gave 80% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 15:49.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo