BOOM Esports vs Ivory — prediction BDB2ЗК · Dota 2

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BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

BOOM Esportswin 2:0

series probability

84%16%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Ivoryloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden

Panda · 23 games

57%

Gyrocopteroften banned

Parker · 23 games

52%

Brewmastersignature

Sacred · 19 games

79%

Marsoften banned

DarkMago · 18 games

56%

Pangolieroften banned

DarkMago · 18 games

28%

Tinyoften banned

DarkMago · 17 games

35%

Morphlingoften banned

Pakazs · 16 games

38%

Svensignature

Pakazs · 16 games

63%

Ivory

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

360 picks · 349 bans

51%

Hoodwink

356 picks · 407 bans

53%

Jakiro

343 picks · 257 bans

47%

Pangolier

318 picks · 509 bans

48%

Sven

295 picks · 306 bans

51%

Snapfire

281 picks · 254 bans

52%

Windranger

274 picks · 361 bans

52%

Dragon Knight

266 picks · 457 bans

46%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)55% vs 57%

Hero pool strength52% BOOM Esports

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total84% BOOM Esports

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct25:19

BOOM Esports 70%Ivory 30%

The model gave 70% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 52:44.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo