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BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Bruv123win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 12 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
cml · 12 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 12 games
58%
Marci
Marcisignature
Tino- · 12 games
67%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Abat · 12 games
58%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Shanks · 12 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Abat · 10 games
60%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Abat · 10 games
70%

Bruv123

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 5 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
seimei · 5 games
80%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Se · 3 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
seimei · 3 games
67%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Palos · 3 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 3 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Palos · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
seimei · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
360 picks · 349 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
356 picks · 407 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
343 picks · 257 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
318 picks · 509 bans
48%
Sven
Sven
295 picks · 306 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
281 picks · 254 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
274 picks · 361 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 457 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 69%
Hero pool strength50% Bruv123
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:38
Execration 53%Bruv123 47%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Bruv123 in 30:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Io
IoTino-
49% · 33 games50% · 115 games
Nature's Prophet423
Nature's Prophet
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritKarma丶
51% · 177 games52% · 139 games
Doomseimei
Doom
Timbersaw
TimbersawShanks
44% · 163 games56% · 137 games
PuckBob
Puck
Dark Willow
Dark Willowcml
52% · 147 games47% · 129 games
PugnaSe
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct28:33
Execration 54%Bruv123 46%
The model gave 54% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 32:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritKarma丶
47% · 176 games52% · 61 game
Nature's ProphetBob
Nature's Prophet
Io
IoTino-
52% · 55 games54% · 123 games
Windranger423
Windranger
Sniper
SniperShanks
51% · 87 games46% · 118 games
Doomseimei
Doom
Elder Titan
Elder Titancml
53% · 86 games47% · 102 games
ClockwerkSe
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed21:43
Execration 56%Bruv123 44%
The model gave 56% on Execration — the game was taken by Bruv123 in 41:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTino-
43% · 100 games55% · 124 games
Nature's Prophet423
Nature's Prophet
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritKarma丶
45% · 178 games54% · 144 games
PuckBob
Puck
Pugna
PugnaShanks
51% · 104 games46% · 227 games
Centaur Warrunnerseimei
Centaur Warrunner
Tusk
Tuskcml
42% · 176 games66% · 63 games
ChenSe
Chen
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 60%
Series resultBruv123 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3