Bushido vs Palianytsia — prediction RRSE# · Dota 2

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RES Regional Series: EU #4 · BO2

result vs prediction

Bushidoloss 0:2

series probability

36%64%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Palianytsiawin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bushido

No games played over 6 months.

Palianytsia

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

367 picks · 352 bans

51%

Hoodwink

358 picks · 403 bans

54%

Jakiro

341 picks · 257 bans

47%

Pangolier

325 picks · 516 bans

48%

Sven

295 picks · 306 bans

51%

Phoenix

279 picks · 479 bans

51%

Snapfire

277 picks · 252 bans

52%

Windranger

276 picks · 348 bans

51%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% Bushido

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total64% Palianytsia

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct15:40

Bushido 43%Palianytsia 57%

The model gave 57% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Palianytsia in 36:33.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo

Windranger4IVAN

51% · 226 games50% · 78 games

Shadow FiendCrystallize