RES Regional Series: EU #4 · BO2
result vs prediction
V1dar Gamingloss 0:2series probability
4%96%
probability at match start · final 0:2
AVULUSwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
V1dar Gaming
Batrideroften banned
Groom · 5 games
Timbersawoften banned
kur0patbI4 · 4 games
Kunkka
kur0patbI4 · 3 games
Lunaoften banned
dizzying · 3 games
Snapfire
Groom · 3 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
dizzying · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
dizzying · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
dizzying · 2 games
AVULUS
Batridersignature
Ekki · 11 games
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 11 games
Windrangersignature
Smiling Knight · 9 games
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 8 games
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 7 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
SoNNeikO · 7 games
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 7 games
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
370 picks · 353 bans
Hoodwink
360 picks · 404 bans
Jakiro
341 picks · 257 bans
Pangolier
329 picks · 522 bans
Sven
296 picks · 306 bans
Phoenix
287 picks · 490 bans
Windranger
281 picks · 347 bans
Snapfire
276 picks · 250 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 68%
Hero pool strength64% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total96% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:45
V1dar Gaming 15%AVULUS 85%
The model gave 85% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 39:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunadizzying
EarthshakerStormstormer
PuckEgor
WindrangerSmiling Knight
Pangolierkur0patbI4
KunkkaXibbe
SniperGroom
Naga SirenSoNNeikO
51% · 179 games
LionEkki
Game 2prediction correct21:41
V1dar Gaming 16%AVULUS 84%
The model gave 84% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 38:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusadizzying
WindrangerSmiling Knight
Sand KingEgor
PuckStormstormer
Centaur Warrunnerkur0patbI4
DoomXibbe
MiranaGroom
TuskSoNNeikO
45% · 122 games
LionEkki
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 96%
Series resultAVULUS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2