Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ignitewin 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SStormrageloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ignite
No games played over 6 months.
Stormrage
Lion
N1NE · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Robo-Z · 1 game
Rubick
N1NE · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
Robo-Z · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
DM · 1 game
Tiny
DM · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
608 picks · 377 bans
Rubick
499 picks · 276 bans
Phoenix
494 picks · 582 bans
Tiny
470 picks · 393 bans
Pangolier
411 picks · 570 bans
Puck
348 picks · 940 bans
Beastmaster
337 picks · 875 bans
Tusk
335 picks · 283 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Ignite
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Ignite
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:10
Ignite 67%Stormrage 33%
The model gave 67% on Ignite — the game was taken by Ignite in 28:02.
Game 2prediction missed14:31
Ignite 67%Stormrage 33%
The model gave 67% on Ignite — the game was taken by Stormrage in 27:04.
Game 3prediction correct39:5
Ignite 67%Stormrage 33%
The model gave 67% on Ignite — the game was taken by Ignite in 25:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteIgnite · 67%
Series resultIgnite 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3