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RES Regional Series: EU #4 · BO2
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Passion UAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 15 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
WoE · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 15 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 12 games
33%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
WoE · 12 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 10 games
20%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 10 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Rein · 10 games
30%

Passion UA

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 9 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Fernans · 9 games
44%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 9 games
44%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Batyuk · 9 games
78%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 8 games
13%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 8 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fernans · 8 games
38%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fernans · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
374 picks · 357 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
362 picks · 404 bans
54%
Jakiro
Jakiro
341 picks · 256 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
332 picks · 524 bans
48%
Sven
Sven
296 picks · 306 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
290 picks · 497 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
281 picks · 344 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
280 picks · 595 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:9
One Move 52%Passion UA 48%
The model gave 52% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 40:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingWoE
50% · 149 games45% · 65 games
Muertayowaai
Muerta
Underlord
UnderlordSSS
58% · 46 games49% · 20 games
Lone DruidBatyuk
Lone Druid
Monkey King
Monkey KingDifference
52% · 52 games52% · 169 games
Primal Beastniche
Primal Beast
Mirana
Mirananot me
48% · 70 games55% · 16 games
Tinkerflacko
Tinker
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRein
51% · 86 games46% · 133 games
TuskFernans
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct22:16
One Move 55%Passion UA 45%
The model gave 55% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 36:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaWoE
51% · 160 games42% · 85 games
Muertayowaai
Muerta
Puck
PuckDifference
51% · 131 game43% · 224 games
Dragon Knightniche
Dragon Knight
Doom
DoomSSS
53% · 155 games54% · 196 games
MarsBatyuk
Mars
Mirana
Mirananot me
48% · 117 games47% · 17 games
Tinkerflacko
Tinker
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRein
56% · 57 games55% · 98 games
SniperFernans
Sniper
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 53%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2