BLAST Slam VII · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Tinysignature
Skiter · 33 games
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 27 games
Marsoften banned
ATF · 26 games
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 23 games
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 23 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
Team Liquid
Tinysignature
miCKe · 38 games
Tusksignature
Boxi · 36 games
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 32 games
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 31 game
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 29 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 27 games
Underlordsignature
Ace · 24 games
Void Spirit
Nisha · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
606 picks · 377 bans
Rubick
498 picks · 276 bans
Phoenix
493 picks · 582 bans
Tiny
469 picks · 392 bans
Pangolier
411 picks · 568 bans
Puck
345 picks · 942 bans
Beastmaster
337 picks · 874 bans
Tusk
335 picks · 283 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head8 – 5
Model total50% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:20
Team Falcons 50%Team Liquid 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 50:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
NecrophosATF
SnapfireAce
AlchemistSkiter
PuckNisha
Ember SpiritSumaiL
TinymiCKe
PhoenixSneyking
Nature's ProphettOfu
LionCr1t-
PudgeBoxi
Game 2prediction missed46:28
Team Falcons 49%Team Liquid 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 37:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerSkiter
InvokerNisha
UnderlordATF
TinymiCKe
Ember SpiritSumaiL
DawnbreakerAce
PhoenixSneyking
HoodwinktOfu
LionCr1t-
TuskBoxi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 50%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2