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RES Regional Series: EU #4 · BO2
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 1:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:1
AVULUSloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 9 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Fernans · 9 games
44%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 9 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 7 games
14%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 7 games
29%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fernans · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 7 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fernans · 7 games
29%

AVULUS

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 10 games
80%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 10 games
70%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 8 games
75%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 7 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 7 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 7 games
86%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Smiling Knight · 7 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Xibbe · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
379 picks · 362 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
367 picks · 407 bans
54%
Jakiro
Jakiro
343 picks · 256 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 533 bans
48%
Sven
Sven
296 picks · 307 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
294 picks · 510 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
284 picks · 596 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
281 picks · 640 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 69%
Hero pool strength61% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:30
Passion UA 42%AVULUS 58%
The model gave 58% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 27:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightyowaai
48% · 199 games52% · 219 games
PuckStormstormer
Puck
Kunkka
KunkkaBatyuk
49% · 189 games49% · 266 games
WindrangerSmiling Knight
Windranger
Timbersaw
Timbersawniche
48% · 147 games50% · 60 games
VisageXibbe
Visage
Batrider
BatriderFernans
56% · 235 games53% · 119 games
AlchemistEkki
Alchemist
Marci
Marciflacko
53% · 91 game44% · 197 games
TuskSoNNeikO
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed40:27
Passion UA 43%AVULUS 57%
The model gave 57% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Passion UA in 48:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawBatyuk
43% · 219 games50% · 78 games
SniperStormstormer
Sniper
Windranger
Windrangeryowaai
50% · 217 games52% · 143 games
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
Nature's Prophet
Invoker
Invokerniche
54% · 97 games51% · 324 games
PangolierXibbe
Pangolier
Enchantress
Enchantressflacko
40% · 206 games49% · 186 games
LionEkki
Lion
Snapfire
SnapfireFernans
53% · 116 games60% · 124 games
MarciSoNNeikO
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2