RES Regional Series: EU #4 · BO2
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:1
One Moveloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AVULUS
Batridersignature
Ekki · 10 games
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 10 games
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 8 games
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 7 games
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 7 games
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 7 games
Windrangeroften banned
Smiling Knight · 7 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Xibbe · 6 games
One Move
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 16 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 14 games
Jakiro
Rein · 12 games
Windrangeroften banned
WoE · 12 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 10 games
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 10 games
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
381 picks · 363 bans
Hoodwink
371 picks · 407 bans
Jakiro
343 picks · 257 bans
Pangolier
342 picks · 534 bans
Sven
296 picks · 308 bans
Phoenix
294 picks · 514 bans
Ember Spirit
287 picks · 597 bans
Weaver
285 picks · 646 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 49%
Hero pool strength63% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:10
AVULUS 60%One Move 40%
The model gave 60% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 27:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
Primal BeastSSS
Queen of PainStormstormer
Void SpiritDifference
UnderlordXibbe
SpectreWoE
Crystal MaidenSoNNeikO
EnchantressRein
LionEkki
Tusknot me
Game 2prediction missed22:47
AVULUS 60%One Move 40%
The model gave 60% on AVULUS — the game was taken by One Move in 52:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
LunaWoE
InvokerStormstormer
Dragon KnightDifference
BeastmasterXibbe
PangolierSSS
MiranaEkki
Snapfirenot me
Crystal MaidenSoNNeikO
TuskRein
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 65%
Accuracy by game1 of 2