RES Regional Series: EU #4 · BO2
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
V1dar Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 12 games
Jakiro
Rein · 12 games
Windrangeroften banned
WoE · 11 games
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 10 games
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
Phoenixoften banned
Rein · 10 games
V1dar Gaming
Batrideroften banned
Groom · 3 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
dizzying · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
dizzying · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Groom · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
Groom · 2 games
Bristleback
dizzying · 1 game
Dazzleoften banned
Difference · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
dizzying · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
391 picks · 365 bans
Hoodwink
374 picks · 410 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 534 bans
Jakiro
343 picks · 256 bans
Phoenix
297 picks · 521 bans
Sven
296 picks · 308 bans
Weaver
291 picks · 652 bans
Ember Spirit
288 picks · 609 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:19
One Move 63%V1dar Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 45:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawSSS
Lunadizzying
MorphlingWoE
PuckEgor
Ember SpiritDifference
Kunkkakur0patbI4
Shadow Demonnot me
SnapfireGroom
MarciRein
Game 2prediction correct29:27
One Move 65%V1dar Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 50:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerWoE
Lunadizzying
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
Storm SpiritEgor
Ember SpiritDifference
Beastmasterkur0patbI4
Mirananot me
Keeper of the LightGroom
Naga SirenRein
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 79%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2