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EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Synapseloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 21 game
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
yamich · 19 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 16 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 15 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BOOM · 14 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Seleri · 13 games
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
aik · 13 games
31%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
BOOM · 12 games
42%

Team Synapse

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 8 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
emptiness · 8 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 6 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
emptiness · 5 games
100%
Bane
Baneoften banned
Stoic · 4 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
emptiness · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
477 picks · 317 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
328 picks · 498 bans
58%
Bane
Bane
316 picks · 433 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
315 picks · 391 bans
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
300 picks · 623 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
276 picks · 112 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
275 picks · 288 bans
52%
Mirana
Mirana
274 picks · 102 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Team Synapse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
MOUZ 65%Team Synapse 35%
The model gave 65% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Team Synapse.
Game 2prediction correct
MOUZ 65%Team Synapse 35%
The model gave 65% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ.
Game 3prediction correct
MOUZ 65%Team Synapse 35%
The model gave 65% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ.
Game 4prediction missed32:43
MOUZ 56%Team Synapse 44%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 1:07:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNo!ob
64% · 103 games53% · 326 games
Largoemptiness
Largo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendDarkLord^
49% · 150 games46% · 428 games
RingmasterJeezy
Ringmaster
Slardar
SlardarBOOM
41% · 147 games44% · 184 games
Winter Wyvernbengan
Winter Wyvern
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkxsvampire
50% · 323 games
Tusk
TuskMoOz
57% · 215 games
Game 5prediction correct38:16
MOUZ 55%Team Synapse 45%
The model gave 55% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 32:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawBOOM
45% · 165 games53% · 283 games
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
Centaur Warrunner
Lina
LinaNo!ob
32% · 43 games54% · 160 games
RingmasterJeezy
Ringmaster
Lifestealer
LifestealerDarkLord^
55% · 112 games51% · 107 games
Treant Protectorbengan
Treant Protector
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterxsvampire
48% · 46 games
Disruptor
DisruptorMoOz
53% · 184 games
Game 6prediction correct57:37
MOUZ 58%Team Synapse 42%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 56:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendDarkLord^
51% · 169 games46% · 172 games
Axeemptiness
Axe
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNo!ob
50% · 36 games46% · 179 games
Dark WillowJeezy
Dark Willow
Doom
DoomBOOM
54% · 101 game51% · 213 games
Ringmasterbengan
Ringmaster
Mirana
Miranaxsvampire
52% · 92 games
Bane
BaneMoOz
55% · 166 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 65%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game4 of 6