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The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Cloud9loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 30 games
73%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 29 games
59%
Luna
Luna
miCKe · 26 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 26 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 26 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 24 games
71%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 21 game
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 19 games
53%

Cloud9

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 37 games
62%
Bane
Banesignature
Fishman · 27 games
78%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
DM · 17 games
65%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Kataomi · 17 games
82%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
No[o]ne · 17 games
53%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Kataomi · 17 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Fishman · 16 games
94%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
No[o]ne · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
403 picks · 368 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
380 picks · 415 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 540 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
343 picks · 256 bans
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
310 picks · 536 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
309 picks · 675 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 622 bans
50%
Sven
Sven
297 picks · 310 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 58%
Hero pool strength57% Cloud9
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:14
Team Liquid 54%Cloud9 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand King33
50% · 47 games44% · 111 games
ZeusNo[o]ne
Zeus
Sniper
SniperNisha
47% · 72 games54% · 124 games
Monkey KingWatson
Monkey King
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
56% · 109 games43% · 58 games
UnderlordDM
Underlord
Clockwerk
ClockwerkiNSaNiA
45% · 129 games49% · 126 games
MiranaKataomi
Mirana
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBoxi
52% · 131 game57% · 69 games
BaneFishman
Bane
Game 2prediction correct26:21
Team Liquid 56%Cloud9 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 49:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNisha
49% · 136 games53% · 102 games
SniperNo[o]ne
Sniper
Doom
Doom33
51% · 178 games44% · 127 games
LinaWatson
Lina
Razor
RazormiCKe
45% · 130 games52% · 217 games
KunkkaDM
Kunkka
Naga Siren
Naga SireniNSaNiA
50% · 84 games60% · 41 game
Winter WyvernKataomi
Winter Wyvern
Tusk
TuskBoxi
48% · 123 games53% · 164 games
ClockwerkFishman
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 60%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2