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The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 9 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 9 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Jabz · 8 games
63%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Oli · 7 games
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 7 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
23savage · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 6 games
83%
Tusk
Tusk
Q · 6 games
50%

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Xxs · 22 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 21 game
81%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 18 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 16 games
44%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 16 games
69%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
XinQ · 14 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 14 games
71%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Xm · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
403 picks · 368 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
380 picks · 415 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 541 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
343 picks · 256 bans
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
310 picks · 536 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
309 picks · 676 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 623 bans
50%
Sven
Sven
297 picks · 310 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total83% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:17
Aurora Gaming 32%Xtreme Gaming 68%
The model gave 68% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 38:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windranger23savage
57% · 118 games46% · 71 game
MuertaAme
Muerta
Timbersaw
TimbersawLorenof
44% · 105 games42% · 49 games
Queen of PainXm
Queen of Pain
Enigma
EnigmaJabz
47% · 33 games53% · 173 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Clockwerk
ClockwerkQ
52% · 92 games34% · 9 games
TinkerDy
Tinker
Elder Titan
Elder TitanOli
58% · 56 games52% · 102 games
MarciXinQ
Marci
Game 2prediction correct23:30
Aurora Gaming 31%Xtreme Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 56:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
Spectre23savage
52% · 53 games45% · 89 games
Faceless VoidAme
Faceless Void
Lycan
LycanJabz
56% · 44 games47% · 199 games
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Centaur Warrunner
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
53% · 139 games44% · 36 games
SniperXm
Sniper
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQ
51% · 162 games46% · 50 games
MiranaXinQ
Mirana
Bane
BaneOli
59% · 64 games47% · 88 games
PugnaDy
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 83%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2