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The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Xxs · 21 game
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 21 game
81%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 17 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 16 games
44%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 16 games
69%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
XinQ · 14 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 14 games
71%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Xm · 14 games
57%

Team Spirit

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 27 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 25 games
40%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 22 games
77%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 20 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 19 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 18 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
410 picks · 372 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
385 picks · 418 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
377 picks · 544 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
344 picks · 256 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
329 picks · 708 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
317 picks · 576 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
313 picks · 632 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
311 picks · 716 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head7 – 1
Model total52% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:22
Xtreme Gaming 53%Team Spirit 47%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaAme
42% · 64 games54% · 118 games
LunaYatoro
Luna
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXm
58% · 120 games48% · 177 games
Dragon KnightLarl
Dragon Knight
Doom
DoomXxs
52% · 135 games39% · 40 games
Night StalkerCollapse
Night Stalker
Tinker
TinkerDy
51% · 20 games46% · 88 games
SnapfireMira
Snapfire
Mirana
MiranaXinQ
52% · 119 games54% · 35 games
OmniknightMiposhka
Omniknight
Game 2prediction missed17:9
Xtreme Gaming 50%Team Spirit 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 26:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaAme
52% · 214 games50% · 137 games
MorphlingYatoro
Morphling
Sniper
SniperXm
46% · 72 games51% · 70 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Visage
VisageXxs
52% · 47 games52% · 108 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Tinker
TinkerDy
49% · 17 games56% · 104 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Tusk
TuskXinQ
47% · 212 games48% · 143 games
PhoenixMiposhka
Phoenix
Game 3prediction missed26:4
Xtreme Gaming 50%Team Spirit 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 29:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaAme
47% · 78 games50% · 86 games
TerrorbladeYatoro
Terrorblade
Sniper
SniperXm
50% · 88 games55% · 218 games
Dragon KnightLarl
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
47% · 444 games50% · 181 game
MarsCollapse
Mars
Undying
UndyingDy
46% · 82 games55% · 220 games
BatriderMira
Batrider
Tusk
TuskXinQ
50% · 205 games49% · 192 games
PhoenixMiposhka
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 52%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3