The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 1:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Heroicwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Heroic
Clockwerkoften banned
Scofield · 24 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 24 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
Scofield · 22 games
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 19 games
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 17 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Davai · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
409 picks · 374 bans
Hoodwink
386 picks · 419 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 542 bans
Jakiro
344 picks · 256 bans
Weaver
330 picks · 713 bans
Phoenix
316 picks · 584 bans
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 633 bans
Tiny
311 picks · 718 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 39%
Hero pool strength52% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total68% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:23
beastcoast 32%Heroic 68%
The model gave 68% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 54:28.
Game 2prediction correct5:24
beastcoast 32%Heroic 68%
The model gave 68% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 33:17.
Game 3prediction correct22:40
beastcoast 32%Heroic 68%
The model gave 68% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 54:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 68%
Series resultHeroic 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3