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The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 44 games
66%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 35 games
66%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 28 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 27 games
78%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 27 games
78%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 26 games
58%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 25 games
76%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 24 games
67%

1w Team

Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 37 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 35 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 29 games
66%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 29 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 28 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 24 games
67%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 24 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 23 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
412 picks · 375 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
386 picks · 419 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
377 picks · 542 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
345 picks · 256 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
331 picks · 716 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
316 picks · 593 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 634 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
313 picks · 721 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:11
Team Falcons 72%1w Team 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 32:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
51% · 233 games56% · 134 games
Monkey KingMunkushi~
Monkey King
Kunkka
KunkkaATF
53% · 139 games48% · 155 games
BeastmasterCloud
Beastmaster
Batrider
BatriderMalr1ne
52% · 201 game48% · 240 games
WindrangerChira JUNIOR
Windranger
Snapfire
SnapfireCr1t-
43% · 146 games51% · 204 games
ClockwerkRESPECT
Clockwerk
Tusk
TuskSneyking
44% · 136 games52% · 122 games
Pugnaswedenstrong
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct30:11
Team Falcons 70%1w Team 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 29:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
54% · 225 games46% · 209 games
LunaMunkushi~
Luna
Sniper
SniperMalr1ne
49% · 62 games54% · 92 games
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
Monkey King
Kunkka
KunkkaATF
53% · 189 games40% · 104 games
BeastmasterCloud
Beastmaster
Mirana
MiranaCr1t-
56% · 107 games49% · 205 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskSneyking
47% · 135 games51% · 108 games
Treant ProtectorRESPECT
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 86%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2