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The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Zeroloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 36 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 35 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 29 games
66%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 29 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 27 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 24 games
67%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 24 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 23 games
65%

Team Zero

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BEYOND · 18 games
56%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
BEYOND · 15 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
zzq · 15 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
7e · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ponlo · 15 games
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
zzq · 12 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
7e · 12 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ponlo · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
412 picks · 375 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
385 picks · 419 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 542 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
345 picks · 256 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
330 picks · 716 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
316 picks · 593 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 635 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
312 picks · 723 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 36%
Hero pool strength52% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:10
1w Team 65%Team Zero 35%
The model gave 65% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 33:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMunkushi~
50% · 168 games57% · 142 games
Miranapoyoyo
Mirana
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCloud
40% · 98 games43% · 94 games
Earth Spirit7e
Earth Spirit
Batrider
Batriderswedenstrong
46% · 208 games57% · 211 games
KunkkaBEYOND
Kunkka
Invoker
InvokerChira JUNIOR
56% · 99 games49% · 183 games
Dark WillowPonlo
Dark Willow
Tusk
TuskRESPECT
50% · 183 games52% · 126 games
Treant Protectorzzq
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct22:3
1w Team 65%Team Zero 35%
The model gave 65% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 36:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerMunkushi~
53% · 148 games48% · 89 games
Muertapoyoyo
Muerta
Brewmaster
BrewmasterCloud
47% · 175 games46% · 307 games
Mars7e
Mars
Tiny
TinyChira JUNIOR
54% · 255 games50% · 199 games
KunkkaBEYOND
Kunkka
Batrider
Batriderswedenstrong
48% · 220 games54% · 22 games
TinkerPonlo
Tinker
Omniknight
OmniknightRESPECT
53% · 41 game50% · 222 games
Clockwerkzzq
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 77%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2