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The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Razor
Razoroften banned
CHYuan · 18 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 17 games
41%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
CHYuan · 16 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
CHYuan · 15 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Ponyo · 14 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 13 games
46%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Ponyo · 13 games
62%
Sven
Svensignature
Akashi · 13 games
69%

BETBOOM TEAM

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gpK~ · 26 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Save- · 23 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Save- · 22 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Save- · 17 games
41%
Mirana
Mirana
TORONTOTOKYO · 16 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 16 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 14 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
412 picks · 376 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
386 picks · 419 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 542 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
346 picks · 256 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
330 picks · 717 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
315 picks · 596 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 634 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 723 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 35%
Hero pool strength51% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total80% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:24
Talon Esports 32%BETBOOM TEAM 68%
The model gave 68% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 34:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAkashi
41% · 40 games54% · 131 game
LunaNightfall
Luna
Puck
PuckMikoto
52% · 248 games46% · 149 games
BeastmasterMieRo
Beastmaster
Sand King
Sand KingWs
57% · 56 games45% · 87 games
Void SpiritgpK~
Void Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixJhocam
50% · 240 games52% · 210 games
Shadow DemonTORONTOTOKYO
Shadow Demon
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorPonyo
54% · 101 game45% · 108 games
LionSave-
Lion
Game 2prediction missed19:23
Talon Esports 34%BETBOOM TEAM 66%
The model gave 66% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 50:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAkashi
49% · 266 games48% · 134 games
Nature's ProphetgpK~
Nature's Prophet
Monkey King
Monkey KingMikoto
55% · 122 games51% · 261 game
KunkkaMieRo
Kunkka
Mars
MarsWs
50% · 254 games47% · 227 games
WeaverNightfall
Weaver
Mirana
MiranaJhocam
51% · 155 games50% · 311 games
BatriderSave-
Batrider
Phoenix
PhoenixPonyo
51% · 299 games49% · 163 games
TuskTORONTOTOKYO
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct16:35
Talon Esports 34%BETBOOM TEAM 66%
The model gave 66% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 50:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaAkashi
51% · 199 games44% · 200 games
MorphlingNightfall
Morphling
Monkey King
Monkey KingMikoto
53% · 112 games52% · 116 games
Storm SpiritgpK~
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsWs
49% · 249 games49% · 145 games
DoomMieRo
Doom
Snapfire
SnapfireJhocam
44% · 147 games56% · 100 games
Keeper of the LightSave-
Keeper of the Light
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPonyo
49% · 45 games53% · 191 game
Shadow DemonTORONTOTOKYO
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 80%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3