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The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 29 games
59%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 29 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 26 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 26 games
50%
Luna
Luna
miCKe · 24 games
54%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 23 games
70%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 21 game
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
61%

BETBOOM TEAM

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gpK~ · 25 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Save- · 22 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Save- · 21 game
57%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 17 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Save- · 17 games
41%
Mirana
Mirana
TORONTOTOKYO · 16 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 14 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
410 picks · 378 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
384 picks · 426 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
372 picks · 538 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
345 picks · 256 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
330 picks · 735 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 643 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
315 picks · 746 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
312 picks · 632 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 36%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total60% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:26
Team Liquid 57%BETBOOM TEAM 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 48:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
49% · 186 games53% · 116 games
RazorNightfall
Razor
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
48% · 101 game44% · 169 games
TimbersawMieRo
Timbersaw
Puck
PuckNisha
53% · 143 games55% · 64 games
Monkey KinggpK~
Monkey King
Medusa
MedusaBoxi
49% · 40 games51% · 41 game
IoTORONTOTOKYO
Io
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
50% · 62 games51% · 142 games
LionSave-
Lion
Game 2prediction missed12:27
Team Liquid 57%BETBOOM TEAM 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 22:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mirana
MiranamiCKe
51% · 147 games49% · 85 games
AlchemistNightfall
Alchemist
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNisha
46% · 210 games48% · 135 games
Nature's ProphetgpK~
Nature's Prophet
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
48% · 89 games52% · 177 games
KunkkaMieRo
Kunkka
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
48% · 159 games60% · 72 games
ChenTORONTOTOKYO
Chen
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
51% · 109 games48% · 245 games
BatriderSave-
Batrider
Game 3prediction correct28:11
Team Liquid 58%BETBOOM TEAM 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeavermiCKe
57% · 244 games50% · 246 games
Dragon KnightNightfall
Dragon Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
53% · 181 game48% · 54 games
Queen of PaingpK~
Queen of Pain
Enigma
Enigma33
51% · 124 games52% · 187 games
TimbersawMieRo
Timbersaw
Enchantress
EnchantressiNSaNiA
51% · 273 games49% · 276 games
PhoenixTORONTOTOKYO
Phoenix
Tusk
TuskBoxi
40% · 177 games49% · 236 games
BatriderSave-
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 60%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3