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The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Zeroloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 43 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 35 games
66%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 30 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 28 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 27 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
81%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 25 games
84%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 25 games
56%

Team Zero

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BEYOND · 17 games
59%
Mirana
Miranasignature
zzq · 15 games
73%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
BEYOND · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ponlo · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
7e · 13 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
zzq · 12 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
7e · 12 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ponlo · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
410 picks · 379 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
385 picks · 427 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
370 picks · 539 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
345 picks · 256 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
335 picks · 741 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
317 picks · 643 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
315 picks · 753 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
311 picks · 644 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:11
Team Falcons 83%Team Zero 17%
The model gave 83% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 29:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSkiter
51% · 203 games55% · 140 games
DoomBEYOND
Doom
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
54% · 132 games52% · 160 games
Windrangerpoyoyo
Windranger
Kunkka
KunkkaATF
47% · 219 games49% · 271 game
Pangolier7e
Pangolier
Sniper
SniperCr1t-
51% · 96 games50% · 184 games
Batriderzzq
Batrider
Tusk
TuskSneyking
45% · 179 games44% · 74 games
JakiroPonlo
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct32:9
Team Falcons 82%Team Zero 18%
The model gave 82% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 30:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomATF
47% · 226 games52% · 210 games
Lunapoyoyo
Luna
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
50% · 264 games50% · 412 games
PangolierBEYOND
Pangolier
Monkey King
Monkey KingSkiter
50% · 120 games52% · 397 games
Tiny7e
Tiny
Rubick
RubickCr1t-
42% · 375 games58% · 104 games
Treant Protectorzzq
Treant Protector
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
46% · 244 games53% · 106 games
SniperPonlo
Sniper
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 95%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2