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The International 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 29 games
59%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 29 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 26 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 26 games
50%
Luna
Luna
miCKe · 24 games
54%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 23 games
70%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 21 game
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
61%

Team Spirit

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 28 games
54%
Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 25 games
44%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 23 games
78%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 23 games
61%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 21 game
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 20 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 19 games
58%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
410 picks · 379 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
385 picks · 427 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
370 picks · 539 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
345 picks · 256 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
335 picks · 741 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
317 picks · 643 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
315 picks · 753 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
311 picks · 644 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total59% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:27
Team Liquid 43%Team Spirit 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 53:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinamiCKe
47% · 112 games41% · 93 games
MorphlingYatoro
Morphling
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNisha
54% · 72 games58% · 117 games
KunkkaLarl
Kunkka
Tinker
TinkeriNSaNiA
50% · 8 games59% · 61 game
MagnusCollapse
Magnus
Visage
Visage33
49% · 27 games58% · 62 games
Naga SirenMiposhka
Naga Siren
Tusk
TuskBoxi
42% · 172 games49% · 58 games
SnapfireMira
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct22:40
Team Liquid 46%Team Spirit 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
53% · 147 games57% · 104 games
MiranaYatoro
Mirana
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
40% · 91 game40% · 50 games
Queen of PainLarl
Queen of Pain
Timbersaw
TimbersawNisha
51% · 167 games52% · 153 games
KunkkaCollapse
Kunkka
Clockwerk
ClockwerkiNSaNiA
47% · 127 games51% · 215 games
BatriderMira
Batrider
Sniper
SniperBoxi
53% · 64 games53% · 74 games
Treant ProtectorMiposhka
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 59%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2