The International 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Aurora Gaming
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 7 games
Snapfire
Q · 7 games
Clockwerksignature
Q · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 5 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Jabz · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
Oli · 5 games
Elder Titan
Oli · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
410 picks · 379 bans
Hoodwink
384 picks · 427 bans
Pangolier
370 picks · 535 bans
Jakiro
345 picks · 256 bans
Weaver
333 picks · 741 bans
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 643 bans
Tiny
314 picks · 753 bans
Phoenix
310 picks · 644 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 35%
Hero pool strength54% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:31
beastcoast 32%Aurora Gaming 68%
The model gave 68% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 33:29.
Game 2prediction correct15:24
beastcoast 32%Aurora Gaming 68%
The model gave 68% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 43:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 68%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2