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The International 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
nounsloss 1:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Zeroloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 33 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Copy · 27 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 26 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yuma · 23 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Gunnar · 22 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 21 game
62%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 19 games
74%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 19 games
53%

Team Zero

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BEYOND · 16 games
56%
Mirana
Miranasignature
zzq · 14 games
79%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ponlo · 14 games
57%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
BEYOND · 13 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
7e · 13 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
zzq · 12 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
7e · 12 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ponlo · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
410 picks · 379 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
384 picks · 427 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
370 picks · 535 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
345 picks · 256 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
333 picks · 741 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 643 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 753 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
310 picks · 644 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed2:26
nouns 50%Team Zero 50%
The model gave 50% on nouns — the game was taken by Team Zero in 27:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCopy
48% · 116 games47% · 14 games
Drow Rangerpoyoyo
Drow Ranger
Windranger
WindrangerYuma
54% · 147 games49% · 174 games
Mars7e
Mars
Tusk
TuskGunnar
50% · 140 games50% · 323 games
Centaur WarrunnerBEYOND
Centaur Warrunner
Enchantress
EnchantressFly
46% · 189 games54% · 76 games
SniperPonlo
Sniper
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLelis
47% · 133 games52% · 138 games
Treant Protectorzzq
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed27:23
nouns 49%Team Zero 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Zero — the game was taken by nouns in 40:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaYuma
49% · 176 games59% · 112 games
Miranapoyoyo
Mirana
Timbersaw
TimbersawGunnar
44% · 168 games52% · 211 games
KunkkaBEYOND
Kunkka
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritCopy
47% · 120 games48% · 253 games
Batrider7e
Batrider
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFly
52% · 75 games51% · 97 games
SnapfirePonlo
Snapfire
Lion
LionLelis
48% · 165 games49% · 31 game
Omniknightzzq
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 50%
Accuracy by game0 of 2