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The International 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 28 games
54%
Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 25 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 23 games
61%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 22 games
77%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 21 game
62%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 19 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 19 games
68%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 19 games
63%

Aurora Gaming

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 7 games
43%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 6 games
83%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 6 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Jabz · 5 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Oli · 5 games
60%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Oli · 5 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Q · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
410 picks · 380 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
383 picks · 428 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
370 picks · 535 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
344 picks · 256 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
334 picks · 747 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 644 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 757 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
311 picks · 649 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 36%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total83% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:9
Team Spirit 70%Aurora Gaming 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 25:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
46% · 199 games47% · 146 games
BeastmasterJabz
Beastmaster
Kunkka
KunkkaCollapse
54% · 171 game48% · 374 games
PangolierLorenof
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyLarl
47% · 239 games50% · 118 games
Lina23savage
Lina
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMiposhka
56% · 83 games53% · 68 games
SniperQ
Sniper
Snapfire
SnapfireMira
44% · 124 games58% · 110 games
Naga SirenOli
Naga Siren
Game 2prediction correct30:31
Team Spirit 68%Aurora Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 57:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mirana
MiranaYatoro
41% · 88 games51% · 189 games
Morphling23savage
Morphling
Invoker
InvokerLarl
50% · 91 game59% · 87 games
Monkey KingLorenof
Monkey King
Sand King
Sand KingCollapse
49% · 59 games54% · 164 games
MarsJabz
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
46% · 210 games58% · 40 games
SniperQ
Sniper
Jakiro
JakiroMiposhka
34% · 86 games63% · 54 games
Treant ProtectorOli
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 83%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2