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The International 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 29 games
59%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 28 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 26 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 26 games
50%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 24 games
54%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 23 games
70%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 21 game
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
61%

Aurora Gaming

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 7 games
43%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 6 games
83%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 6 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Jabz · 5 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Oli · 5 games
60%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Oli · 5 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
409 picks · 376 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
383 picks · 429 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 533 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
343 picks · 256 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
335 picks · 746 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
318 picks · 643 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
316 picks · 761 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
309 picks · 652 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total75% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:6
Team Liquid 66%Aurora Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doom33
58% · 161 game53% · 158 games
Windranger23savage
Windranger
Razor
RazormiCKe
45% · 164 games55% · 64 games
SniperLorenof
Sniper
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
51% · 99 games54% · 171 game
KunkkaJabz
Kunkka
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
45% · 128 games48% · 93 games
MiranaQ
Mirana
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
46% · 74 games45% · 140 games
TuskOli
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct27:17
Team Liquid 62%Aurora Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 43:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingmiCKe
42% · 234 games52% · 111 games
Windranger23savage
Windranger
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNisha
50% · 71 game57% · 112 games
TimbersawJabz
Timbersaw
Visage
Visage33
46% · 38 games55% · 114 games
PuckLorenof
Puck
Tusk
TuskBoxi
42% · 175 games56% · 137 games
HoodwinkQ
Hoodwink
Omniknight
OmniknightiNSaNiA
52% · 37 games52% · 81 game
Treant ProtectorOli
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 75%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2