CCT Series 3 · BO5
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 2:3series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:3
AVULUSwin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 33 games
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 31 game
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 28 games
Rubick
swedenstrong · 28 games
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 27 games
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 21 game
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 21 game
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 20 games
AVULUS
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 9 games
Batridersignature
Ekki · 7 games
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 7 games
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 7 games
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 7 games
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 7 games
Windrangeroften banned
Smiling Knight · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Xibbe · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
434 picks · 381 bans
Hoodwink
395 picks · 443 bans
Weaver
381 picks · 818 bans
Tiny
366 picks · 837 bans
Pangolier
365 picks · 528 bans
Phoenix
357 picks · 738 bans
Jakiro
341 picks · 256 bans
Clockwerk
340 picks · 508 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 70%
Hero pool strength52% AVULUS
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:8
1w Team 60%AVULUS 40%
The model gave 60% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 28:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenMunkushi~
MorphlingSmiling Knight
BeastmasterCloud
DoomXibbe
Weaverswedenstrong
Queen of Painряф^^
EarthshakerChira JUNIOR
SniperEkki
Shadow DemonRESPECT
ClockwerkSoNNeikO
Game 2prediction correct29:16
1w Team 58%AVULUS 42%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 42:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerMunkushi~
WeaverSmiling Knight
PangolierCloud
Puckряф^^
Tinkerswedenstrong
Centaur WarrunnerXibbe
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
Nature's ProphetSoNNeikO
TuskRESPECT
BatriderEkki
Game 3prediction missed6:15
1w Team 61%AVULUS 39%
The model gave 61% on 1w Team — the game was taken by AVULUS in 25:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenMunkushi~
BristlebackSmiling Knight
BroodmotherCloud
Pangolierряф^^
TimbersawChira JUNIOR
KunkkaXibbe
Windrangerswedenstrong
Nature's ProphetSoNNeikO
WeaverRESPECT
BatriderEkki
Game 4prediction missed19:31
1w Team 61%AVULUS 39%
The model gave 61% on 1w Team — the game was taken by AVULUS in 38:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomCloud
BroodmotherSmiling Knight
WindrangerMunkushi~
Pangolierряф^^
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
BatriderEkki
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
BrewmasterXibbe
Naga SirenRESPECT
Crystal MaidenSoNNeikO
Game 5prediction missed14:24
1w Team 62%AVULUS 38%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by AVULUS in 34:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawCloud
MedusaSmiling Knight
MorphlingMunkushi~
Windrangerряф^^
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
TidehunterXibbe
Sniperswedenstrong
EnchantressSoNNeikO
ClockwerkRESPECT
LionEkki
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 70%
Series resultAVULUS 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5