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CCT Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 9 games
78%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 7 games
86%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 7 games
71%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 7 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 7 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 7 games
86%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Smiling Knight · 6 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Xibbe · 5 games
60%

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 49 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 48 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 41 game
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 40 games
63%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 33 games
52%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 33 games
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 30 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 24 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
435 picks · 382 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
395 picks · 448 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
382 picks · 821 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
369 picks · 844 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
364 picks · 527 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
359 picks · 745 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
339 picks · 508 bans
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
339 picks · 256 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% AVULUS
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total60% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:41
AVULUS 57%MOUZ 43%
The model gave 57% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 55:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSmiling Knight
50% · 184 games62% · 113 games
Storm SpiritSupream^
Storm Spirit
Doom
DoomXibbe
50% · 159 games40% · 39 games
Phantom AssassinUlnit
Phantom Assassin
Sand King
Sand Kingряф^^
51% · 79 games45% · 261 game
TinyNARMAN
Tiny
Sniper
SniperEkki
54% · 31 game39% · 148 games
Jakirobengan
Jakiro
Enchantress
EnchantressSoNNeikO
48% · 187 games59% · 79 games
EnigmaForce
Enigma
Game 2prediction missed
AVULUS 60%MOUZ 40%
The model gave 60% on AVULUS — the game was taken by MOUZ.
Game 3prediction missed27:41
AVULUS 55%MOUZ 45%
The model gave 55% on AVULUS — the game was taken by MOUZ in 49:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherSmiling Knight
52% · 83 games51% · 113 games
MorphlingUlnit
Morphling
Sand King
Sand Kingряф^^
47% · 114 games52% · 136 games
Primal BeastSupream^
Primal Beast
Underlord
UnderlordXibbe
49% · 92 games52% · 110 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Sniper
SniperEkki
50% · 79 games43% · 139 games
DoomNARMAN
Doom
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSoNNeikO
51% · 248 games53% · 118 games
Crystal Maidenbengan
Crystal Maiden
Game 4prediction correct19:13
AVULUS 55%MOUZ 45%
The model gave 55% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 38:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSmiling Knight
48% · 57 games55% · 176 games
PuckSupream^
Puck
Pangolier
Pangolierряф^^
45% · 318 games44% · 183 games
MorphlingUlnit
Morphling
Tidehunter
TidehunterXibbe
48% · 73 games52% · 208 games
MarsForce
Mars
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSoNNeikO
53% · 106 games60% · 45 games
SniperNARMAN
Sniper
Lion
LionEkki
46% · 142 games53% · 84 games
Jakirobengan
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 60%
Series resultAVULUS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 4