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CCT Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 33 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 30 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 28 games
68%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 28 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 27 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 21 game
71%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 20 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
RESPECT · 20 games
60%

AVULUS

Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 7 games
71%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 7 games
100%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 7 games
86%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 6 games
100%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 6 games
83%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 6 games
83%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Stormstormer · 5 games
60%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
436 picks · 383 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
394 picks · 448 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
384 picks · 821 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
375 picks · 848 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
363 picks · 527 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
360 picks · 750 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
340 picks · 508 bans
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
338 picks · 255 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 71%
Hero pool strength56% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:16
1w Team 57%AVULUS 43%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 32:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistMunkushi~
48% · 177 games55% · 42 games
BristlebackSmiling Knight
Bristleback
Sand King
Sand KingCloud
43% · 89 games58% · 173 games
Puckряф^^
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastChira JUNIOR
55% · 279 games53% · 299 games
Centaur WarrunnerXibbe
Centaur Warrunner
Mirana
Miranaswedenstrong
52% · 150 games46% · 209 games
PhoenixSoNNeikO
Phoenix
Enchantress
EnchantressRESPECT
46% · 305 games45% · 277 games
HoodwinkEkki
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct20:8
1w Team 56%AVULUS 44%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 28:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingMunkushi~
44% · 243 games51% · 183 games
WindrangerSmiling Knight
Windranger
Void Spirit
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
42% · 140 games59% · 211 games
Puckряф^^
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierCloud
48% · 400 games44% · 138 games
BeastmasterXibbe
Beastmaster
Mirana
Miranaswedenstrong
53% · 146 games54% · 252 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Omniknight
OmniknightRESPECT
63% · 28 games50% · 173 games
ClockwerkSoNNeikO
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 68%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2