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CCT Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
DMSwin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

DMS

Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 8 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
aik · 5 games
80%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 5 games
80%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
prblms · 5 games
60%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Shigetsu · 5 games
60%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Daxak · 5 games
40%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
prblms · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 4 games
50%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 33 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 24 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 23 games
70%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Niku · 21 game
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daze · 19 games
63%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
63%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
438 picks · 381 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
394 picks · 448 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
384 picks · 820 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
374 picks · 851 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 527 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
362 picks · 750 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
340 picks · 508 bans
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
338 picks · 255 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:35
DMS 47%Natus Vincere Junior 53%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 52:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painmellojul
52% · 74 games52% · 150 games
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
Dragon Knight
Windranger
WindrangerShigetsu
54% · 253 games54% · 118 games
TimbersawNiku
Timbersaw
Sand King
Sand KingDaxak
50% · 83 games51% · 88 games
Dark Seerpma
Dark Seer
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenprblms
48% · 117 games47% · 200 games
TinyDaze
Tiny
Tusk
Tuskaik
37% · 141 game56% · 112 games
LionRiddys
Lion
Game 2prediction missed28:15
DMS 48%Natus Vincere Junior 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by DMS in 30:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand Kingmellojul
46% · 83 games54% · 169 games
Svengotthejuice
Sven
Lina
LinaShigetsu
46% · 110 games59% · 69 games
Monkey KingNiku
Monkey King
Dazzle
DazzleDaxak
50% · 50 games46% · 219 games
Pangolierpma
Pangolier
Batrider
Batrideraik
48% · 316 games43% · 117 games
TechiesDaze
Techies
Alchemist
Alchemistprblms
56% · 147 games52% · 132 games
LionRiddys
Lion
Game 3prediction missed30:21
DMS 48%Natus Vincere Junior 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by DMS in 42:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistShigetsu
53% · 110 games39% · 9 games
Broodmotherpma
Broodmother
Dazzle
DazzleDaxak
55% · 44 games45% · 75 games
Doomgotthejuice
Doom
Huskar
Huskarmellojul
57% · 13 games49% · 35 games
Queen of PainNiku
Queen of Pain
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenprblms
52% · 110 games42% · 93 games
HoodwinkDaze
Hoodwink
Omniknight
Omniknightaik
48% · 30 games54% · 95 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 56%
Series resultDMS 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3