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CCT Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Passion UAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 48 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 47 games
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 41 game
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 40 games
63%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 33 games
52%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 33 games
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 30 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 23 games
35%

Passion UA

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 9 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Fernans · 9 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 7 games
14%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fernans · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 7 games
57%
Chen
Chensignature
flacko · 6 games
83%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 6 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Batyuk · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
440 picks · 380 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
393 picks · 448 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
384 picks · 819 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
375 picks · 852 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 525 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
362 picks · 751 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
340 picks · 508 bans
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
337 picks · 254 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:12
MOUZ 57%Passion UA 43%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 32:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaUlnit
52% · 105 games45% · 237 games
Morphlingyowaai
Morphling
Mars
MarsForce
49% · 236 games50% · 132 games
Mirananiche
Mirana
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSupream^
54% · 247 games52% · 336 games
Centaur WarrunnerBatyuk
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
HoodwinkNARMAN
46% · 253 games47% · 181 game
SnapfireFernans
Snapfire
Marci
Marcibengan
56% · 82 games56% · 37 games
Omniknightflacko
Omniknight
Game 2prediction correct39:7
MOUZ 57%Passion UA 43%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 24:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightUlnit
49% · 258 games49% · 166 games
Terrorbladeyowaai
Terrorblade
Doom
DoomForce
51% · 192 games49% · 176 games
KunkkaBatyuk
Kunkka
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
46% · 187 games56% · 276 games
Primal Beastniche
Primal Beast
Jakiro
Jakirobengan
51% · 95 games46% · 206 games
SnapfireFernans
Snapfire
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNARMAN
47% · 209 games58% · 117 games
Naga Sirenflacko
Naga Siren
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 66%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2