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CCT Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
DMSloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 33 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 30 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 28 games
68%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 28 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 28 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 21 game
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 21 game
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 20 games
55%

DMS

Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 8 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 5 games
80%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
prblms · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 4 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Shigetsu · 4 games
75%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Daxak · 4 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
prblms · 4 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
aik · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
440 picks · 380 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
394 picks · 448 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
383 picks · 820 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
376 picks · 855 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
362 picks · 754 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 524 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
341 picks · 507 bans
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
337 picks · 254 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:28
1w Team 72%DMS 28%
The model gave 72% on 1w Team — the game was taken by DMS in 28:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenMunkushi~
53% · 151 game55% · 113 games
AlchemistShigetsu
Alchemist
Doom
DoomCloud
50% · 124 games41% · 74 games
Queen of Painmellojul
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
PangolierChira JUNIOR
50% · 215 games47% · 40 games
DazzleDaxak
Dazzle
Tinker
TinkerRESPECT
56% · 5 games46% · 104 games
Naga Sirenprblms
Naga Siren
Earthshaker
Earthshakerswedenstrong
58% · 52 games47% · 216 games
Batrideraik
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct34:5
1w Team 71%DMS 29%
The model gave 71% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 34:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingCloud
58% · 37 games48% · 44 games
SlarkShigetsu
Slark
Monkey King
Monkey KingMunkushi~
55% · 63 games40% · 41 game
Shadow Fiendmellojul
Shadow Fiend
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
49% · 96 games44% · 17 games
VisageDaxak
Visage
Mirana
MiranaRESPECT
42% · 76 games51% · 48 games
Earthshakerprblms
Earthshaker
Sniper
Sniperswedenstrong
53% · 33 games54% · 155 games
Batrideraik
Batrider
Game 3prediction correct28:5
1w Team 71%DMS 29%
The model gave 71% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 25:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingCloud
45% · 91 game49% · 105 games
UrsaShigetsu
Ursa
Weaver
WeaverMunkushi~
52% · 213 games55% · 116 games
Storm Spiritmellojul
Storm Spirit
Invoker
InvokerChira JUNIOR
57% · 79 games48% · 53 games
TidehunterDaxak
Tidehunter
Sniper
Sniperswedenstrong
46% · 36 games50% · 204 games
Phoenixaik
Phoenix
Sven
SvenRESPECT
47% · 205 games48% · 146 games
Windrangerprblms
Windranger
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 85%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3