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CCT Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
DMSwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

DMS

Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 4 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
prblms · 4 games
50%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Daxak · 4 games
50%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 3 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
prblms · 3 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 3 games
33%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Daxak · 3 games
33%

Hydra

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
0%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 1 game
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ethereal · 1 game
100%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 1 game
100%
Rubick
Rubick
jAMES · 1 game
100%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Actor · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
440 picks · 379 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
392 picks · 447 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
387 picks · 821 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
381 picks · 862 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
366 picks · 758 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 522 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
339 picks · 507 bans
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
337 picks · 252 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:3
DMS 56%Hydra 44%
The model gave 56% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS in 31:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanDaxak
78% · 5 games48% · 36 games
EarthshakerEthereal
Earthshaker
Sand King
Sand Kingmellojul
42% · 20 games50% · 34 games
UnderlordActor
Underlord
Windranger
WindrangerShigetsu
48% · 36 games57% · 20 games
SniperjAMES
Sniper
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageprblms
50% · 26 games
Omniknight
Omniknightaik
57% · 3 games
Game 2prediction correct30:7
DMS 57%Hydra 43%
The model gave 57% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS in 27:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand Kingmellojul
60% · 22 games43% · 57 games
Shadow FiendEthereal
Shadow Fiend
Ursa
UrsaShigetsu
53% · 37 games55% · 59 games
TidehunterActor
Tidehunter
Enigma
EnigmaDaxak
56% · 26 games45% · 90 games
TuskjAMES
Tusk
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenprblms
59% · 34 games
Batrider
Batrideraik
45% · 87 games
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 61%
Series resultDMS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2