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CCT Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 47 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 46 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 41 game
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 40 games
63%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 33 games
52%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 32 games
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 30 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 23 games
35%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 32 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 24 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 21 game
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Niku · 21 game
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daze · 19 games
63%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
63%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
441 picks · 377 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
393 picks · 447 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
388 picks · 823 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
382 picks · 864 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
367 picks · 759 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 518 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
339 picks · 507 bans
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
336 picks · 252 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 41%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total54% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:12
MOUZ 52%Natus Vincere Junior 48%
The model gave 52% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 33:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSupream^
49% · 280 games53% · 222 games
Svengotthejuice
Sven
Windranger
WindrangerUlnit
53% · 205 games52% · 132 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Doom
DoomForce
52% · 192 games46% · 213 games
Marspma
Mars
Naga Siren
Naga SirenNARMAN
46% · 121 game49% · 125 games
SnapfireDaze
Snapfire
Omniknight
Omniknightbengan
46% · 44 games52% · 150 games
LionRiddys
Lion
Game 2prediction correct26:26
MOUZ 51%Natus Vincere Junior 49%
The model gave 51% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 37:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingUlnit
52% · 277 games50% · 220 games
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
Dragon Knight
Puck
PuckSupream^
54% · 194 games53% · 117 games
Sand Kingpma
Sand King
Alchemist
AlchemistForce
56% · 131 game43% · 234 games
Ember SpiritNiku
Ember Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkNARMAN
50% · 313 games54% · 285 games
Shadow DemonRiddys
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
Jakirobengan
45% · 141 game45% · 200 games
TechiesDaze
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 54%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2