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CCT Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulseloss 0:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
AVULUSwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
JANTER · 23 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 22 games
45%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 19 games
47%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Kami · 18 games
56%
Ursa
Ursasignature
V-Tune · 18 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 17 games
59%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 16 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Hduo · 16 games
56%

AVULUS

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 7 games
86%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 5 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 5 games
80%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Stormstormer · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 5 games
100%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Smiling Knight · 4 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
441 picks · 376 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
394 picks · 447 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
387 picks · 823 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
384 picks · 865 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
367 picks · 762 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 516 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
339 picks · 507 bans
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
335 picks · 252 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 68%
Hero pool strength58% AVULUS
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:32
Night Pulse 53%AVULUS 47%
The model gave 53% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by AVULUS in 39:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetWorick
44% · 112 games50% · 188 games
MorphlingSmiling Knight
Morphling
Monkey King
Monkey KingKami
56% · 94 games48% · 56 games
Queen of Painряф^^
Queen of Pain
Sand King
Sand KingTobi
45% · 49 games49% · 197 games
Centaur WarrunnerXibbe
Centaur Warrunner
Jakiro
JakiroHduo
48% · 72 games57% · 80 games
Naga SirenSoNNeikO
Naga Siren
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJANTER
48% · 247 games54% · 53 games
SniperdEsire
Sniper
Game 2prediction missed25:37
Night Pulse 55%AVULUS 45%
The model gave 55% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by AVULUS in 39:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverKami
53% · 168 games46% · 28 games
BristlebackSmiling Knight
Bristleback
Sand King
Sand KingTobi
50% · 54 games42% · 42 games
Queen of Painряф^^
Queen of Pain
Earthshaker
EarthshakerWorick
57% · 79 games43% · 62 games
Nature's ProphetSoNNeikO
Nature's Prophet
Sniper
SniperJANTER
49% · 42 games50% · 164 games
Centaur WarrunnerXibbe
Centaur Warrunner
Naga Siren
Naga SirenHduo
56% · 106 games48% · 153 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 54%
Series resultAVULUS 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2