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FISSURE Universe: Episode 3 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:3
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Team Falconswin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 30 games
57%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 28 games
79%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Miposhka · 27 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 26 games
42%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 23 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 22 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 20 games
70%

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 44 games
66%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 35 games
74%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 35 games
77%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 34 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 30 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 28 games
68%
Sven
Svensignature
Skiter · 28 games
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 27 games
85%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
441 picks · 376 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
394 picks · 448 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
388 picks · 823 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
385 picks · 867 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
368 picks · 762 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 516 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
338 picks · 507 bans
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
335 picks · 252 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% Team Falcons
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total60% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:41
Team Spirit 43%Team Falcons 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:11:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackCollapse
45% · 23 games55% · 165 games
PuckMalr1ne
Puck
Lina
LinaYatoro
56% · 76 games50% · 172 games
WindrangerSkiter
Windranger
Pangolier
PangolierLarl
47% · 265 games49% · 38 games
BroodmotherATF
Broodmother
Tinker
TinkerMira
little data47% · 81 game
Naga SirenSneyking
Naga Siren
Sven
SvenMiposhka
50% · 199 games47% · 107 games
SnapfireCr1t-
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct9:34
Team Spirit 45%Team Falcons 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 24:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYatoro
43% · 165 games49% · 114 games
Nature's ProphetSkiter
Nature's Prophet
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLarl
53% · 71 game50% · 280 games
BatriderMalr1ne
Batrider
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
48% · 233 games51% · 55 games
ViperATF
Viper
Mirana
MiranaMiposhka
39% · 100 games53% · 105 games
Naga SirenSneyking
Naga Siren
Snapfire
SnapfireMira
54% · 63 games62% · 78 games
EarthshakerCr1t-
Earthshaker
Game 3prediction correct25:31
Team Spirit 42%Team Falcons 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 48:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mirana
MiranaYatoro
51% · 152 games47% · 68 games
LinaSkiter
Lina
Slardar
SlardarCollapse
52% · 125 games47% · 150 games
KunkkaATF
Kunkka
Earthshaker
EarthshakerLarl
52% · 108 games51% · 134 games
Primal BeastMalr1ne
Primal Beast
Sniper
SniperMira
53% · 77 games50% · 117 games
ClockwerkSneyking
Clockwerk
Tusk
TuskMiposhka
46% · 154 games51% · 147 games
Shadow DemonCr1t-
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 60%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3