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FISSURE Universe: Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 44 games
66%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 35 games
74%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 34 games
76%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 32 games
66%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 30 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 28 games
68%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 27 games
85%
Sven
Svensignature
Skiter · 27 games
70%

Tundra Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 40 games
60%
Techies
Techiessignature
Whitemon · 37 games
73%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 28 games
64%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 28 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Whitemon · 27 games
59%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 27 games
78%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Whitemon · 25 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 24 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
441 picks · 374 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
394 picks · 448 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
387 picks · 822 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
385 picks · 869 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
368 picks · 763 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 515 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
339 picks · 505 bans
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
334 picks · 252 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% Team Falcons
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total62% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:31
Team Falcons 58%Tundra Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 45:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalr1ne
41% · 132 games51% · 212 games
Faceless VoidPure~
Faceless Void
Slark
SlarkATF
55% · 59 games49% · 151 game
Nature's ProphetTopson
Nature's Prophet
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
50% · 134 games57% · 132 games
MiranaRAMZES666
Mirana
Batrider
BatriderCr1t-
52% · 207 games54% · 102 games
Marci9Class
Marci
Sven
SvenSneyking
46% · 207 games47% · 142 games
JakiroWhitemon
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed13:43
Team Falcons 59%Tundra Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 26:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
50% · 173 games49% · 89 games
LinaPure~
Lina
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalr1ne
49% · 175 games47% · 146 games
MarsRAMZES666
Mars
Slardar
SlardarATF
51% · 106 games58% · 108 games
Monkey KingTopson
Monkey King
Snapfire
SnapfireCr1t-
48% · 120 games48% · 109 games
Leshrac9Class
Leshrac
Omniknight
OmniknightSneyking
52% · 38 games51% · 160 games
SvenWhitemon
Sven
Game 3prediction correct38:20
Team Falcons 60%Tundra Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 31:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerSkiter
46% · 194 games46% · 131 game
LinaPure~
Lina
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
53% · 285 games52% · 279 games
BatriderTopson
Batrider
Slardar
SlardarATF
54% · 148 games49% · 351 game
Centaur WarrunnerRAMZES666
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
50% · 269 games53% · 165 games
Leshrac9Class
Leshrac
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
48% · 166 games49% · 136 games
TuskWhitemon
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 62%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3