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FISSURE Universe: Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 45 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 36 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 34 games
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 32 games
69%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 32 games
66%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 28 games
82%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 28 games
71%
Sven
Svensignature
Skiter · 28 games
71%

Team Spirit

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 30 games
57%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 28 games
79%
Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 27 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 26 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 23 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 22 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
441 picks · 374 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
395 picks · 448 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
388 picks · 821 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 867 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
369 picks · 764 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 512 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
339 picks · 506 bans
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
334 picks · 252 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total65% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:27
Team Falcons 58%Team Spirit 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 29:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMalr1ne
54% · 113 games42% · 128 games
TerrorbladeYatoro
Terrorblade
Slark
SlarkSkiter
51% · 50 games60% · 38 games
Sand KingCollapse
Sand King
Mars
MarsATF
49% · 167 games52% · 105 games
InvokerLarl
Invoker
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
46% · 155 games51% · 94 games
MiranaMira
Mirana
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
54% · 98 games48% · 218 games
Shadow DemonMiposhka
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed18:22
Team Falcons 59%Team Spirit 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSkiter
53% · 109 games47% · 22 games
JuggernautYatoro
Juggernaut
Monkey King
Monkey KingMalr1ne
52% · 100 games52% · 38 games
SniperLarl
Sniper
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerATF
48% · 73 games50% · 238 games
PangolierCollapse
Pangolier
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSneyking
50% · 73 games45% · 132 games
EnchantressMiposhka
Enchantress
Dark Willow
Dark WillowCr1t-
47% · 141 game57% · 66 games
EarthshakerMira
Earthshaker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 65%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2