CCT Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Passion UA
Hoodwinkoften banned
Fernans · 9 games
Ember Spiritsignature
niche · 8 games
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 7 games
Timbersawsignature
Batyuk · 6 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Batyuk · 5 games
Chenoften banned
flacko · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 5 games
Hydra
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
xsvampire · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
440 picks · 373 bans
Hoodwink
398 picks · 448 bans
Weaver
388 picks · 822 bans
Tiny
387 picks · 867 bans
Phoenix
368 picks · 767 bans
Pangolier
360 picks · 506 bans
Clockwerk
341 picks · 506 bans
Jakiro
333 picks · 251 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:31
Passion UA 56%Hydra 44%
The model gave 56% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Hydra in 30:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetniche
TidehunterActor
Ursayowaai
Queen of PainEthereal
ViperBatyuk
SniperjAMES
TuskFernans
Jakiroflacko
Game 2prediction missed14:45
Passion UA 56%Hydra 44%
The model gave 56% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Hydra in 29:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Painniche
Sand KingActor
KunkkaBatyuk
Monkey KingEthereal
Ember Spirityowaai
RubickjAMES
MiranaFernans
Jakiroflacko
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 62%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2