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CCT Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 7 games
86%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 5 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 5 games
80%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Stormstormer · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 5 games
100%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Smiling Knight · 4 games
100%

Dragon Esports

Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 10 games
30%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 7 games
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 7 games
43%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 7 games
14%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
440 picks · 372 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
398 picks · 448 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 867 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
386 picks · 822 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
368 picks · 767 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 505 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
338 picks · 506 bans
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
332 picks · 251 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 22%
Hero pool strength69% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
AVULUS 92%Dragon Esports 8%
The model gave 92% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS.
Game 2prediction correct
AVULUS 92%Dragon Esports 8%
The model gave 92% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 92%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2